Positioning for the Post-COVID World

For the last four to six months there has been no end of pontification about adapting our professions and businesses to the new COVID reality. Everybody’s thinks they’re an expert. But that feast won’t last forever. Soon enough, the pandemic and the economic valley will be behind us. What we need to start thinking about now is the tomorrow which will surely arrive.

As of now there are at least three vaccines in stage two trials and which appear to be safe and effective. And if those don’t do the trick, there are dozens more approved for trials and another hundred in the works. Various other therapeutic drugs are being discovered or repurposed. See this Economist article (https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/07/20/trials-of-a-vaccine-and-new-drug-raise-hope-of-beating-covid-19?fsrc=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2020-07-20&utm_content=article-link-1) for an overview.

In other words, things will get back to “a normal”. Maybe in a few months, maybe in a year, maybe in two years. But this thing will end and the economy will crawl back. In fact, don’t be surprised if pent up demand combined with the reconstruction of entire industries does not result in a boom. You heard it hear first.

But it will not be yesterday’s normal. The economic devastation will in some sectors will continue much longer than the pandemic, because there are no vaccines for bankrupt industries. Whole segments of the economy will recover only as pale imitations of their former selves, and many others will need to find their feet again. That is never an overnight proposition. Some sectors will never “recover” at all, because we’ve learned that we really don’t need them. And interestingly, a few segments which have actually prospered because of the pandemic will need to learn to get along without a tailwind.

At the same time, entire new sectors, or re-invented sectors, will flourish like sprouts after a forest fire. We’re beginning to see the shape of some of those already.

The trick for all of us is to try to guess how our own market sector will shake out, and to try to get out in front. Getting out in front is something you can’t do after the fact.

In the absence of a functioning crystal ball, none of us can precisely predict the future. But what we can do is make intelligent guesses. And intelligent guessing is based on things we already know.

We know that the economy has taken a beating, but we also know that there remain trillions of dollars of capital waiting to go to work. We know that everyone on the planet aspires to be better off tomorrow than they are today.

We also now understand how highly dependent we have become on technology. We also know that we’re starting to awaken to the notion that we need to get serious about climate and social change before things get irreversibly out of hand.

These facts, as well as industry-specific facts, are right on the table for everyone to see.

But we also know that humans are emotional beings, dreamers, singers and dancers We love to be entertained. We want more than a grey existence– we need colour and expression and fulfilment. And we’ll pay for those things. Pay handsomely. There will still be fine dining and packed hockey arenas and ballets and campfires and exotic vacations. Your heart doesn’t disagree with this, and you know it.

Understanding these things helps us make reasonably accurate guesses about what tomorrow will likely look like, and help us position our business, profession, or industry within it. Is it
time to double down, to cut and run, or to hold a steady tiller? The answer will be different for each of us.

Next week we’ll examine the difference between wants and needs, because this concept is key in positioning ourselves as things come back into “normal” play.

Continue to keep safe, care for others, and keep hopeful, and let me know if there are any specifics you’d like to see discussed.