Why These Ain’t the Dirty Thirties– Part Two

Early in the pandemic I wrote about why we were not going to see a repeat of the Dirty Thirties, mostly because of today’s higher level of distributed wealth, the lower levels of abject poverty going into this, technology, and the (so far mostly) smarter response of governments. I’m confident that this will remain the case. But, another part of the story is emerging. (Original article here (https://mailchi.mp/b9cd3a78aac8/resolution-for-2641433?e=[UNIQID]) .)

There are two keys to understanding the differences between the 1930s and today. The first is today’s already much higher velocity of disruption. COVID is simply accelerating existing trends and disrupting market sectors which have been sleepwalking.

Whereas it took fifty years or more for every household in the western world to get a landline telephone, it took less than ten years for nearly everyone on the planet to get a mobile phone. This in turn unleashed hugely disruptive mobile commerce. Thus, the subsistence farmer no longer had to rely on a corrupt middleman, but could check cocoa bean prices for himself and connect with a fair-trade buyer on another continent. This particular deep disruption occurred in not much more than five years.

But while a three year old smart phone may be obsolete, some areas of life have changed but little in the last fifty years. Take air travel. Flying from Toronto to Los Angeles actually takes longer today than it did fifty years ago, because back then jet fuel was so cheap you could afford to fly full-throttle. Otherwise (except for the annoying security checks), the ritual of being herded single-file onto a plane, the take-off, the ascent, the coffee and snacks, the descent and the deplaning have changed little in our lifetimes.

Similarly, hotels, restaurants, and theaters have continued pretty well unchanged from time immemorial. Until COVID. Now many of them face what must seem like
the dinosaurs’ Great Extinction Event .

It’s now clear that much of the disruption is permanent. Even when the pandemic ends and we get back to “normal”, it won’t be the “old normal”. We are discovering that we don’t need to fly a thousand policy-makers to a conference in London– we can cheaply and easily bring the conference into their homes and offices. Schools and universities are figuring out how to offer most programs virtually. Curbside grocery pickup is no longer a novelty but a viable choice for those of us who take no joy in pushing a shopping cart. The effect is deep and wide.

This is not to suggest that live conferences will never return or that no tourist will ever again walk the beaches of Prince Edward Island. It is to say, though, that when this is over, the “new normal” will be a very different place because we are being forced to discover that some “necessities” aren’t necessary, and that there are actually smarter, faster, cheaper, and better ways of doing things. That’s how disruption always works.

But here’s the second key (and the reason for optimism): the same technology which serves society generally also serves us individually, and now allows each of us to adapt much more quickly, to sidestep from a dying sector to a growing sector with relative ease and speed.

In an era where grade-schoolers are producing and uploading pretty decent little movies of themselves and their pets, complete with rolling scripts, credits, transitions and music, how can I say with a straight face that I can’t convert my speaking and coaching business to a virtual platform? Even if I need to hire my grandchildren, I can do this!

There’s no doubt that COVID has wrecked entire industries and callings, but the good news is that money and demand remain and will reward those who figure out how to apply their skills through new channels. This has always been the case, as I explain in How Two Carburetor Guys Saved Their Lives (and One Didn’t) (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-two-carburetor-guys-saved-lives-one-didnt-norman-bowley/) . But because today’s technology and mobility allow us to adapt relatively easily and inexpensively, we can be the nimble mammals rather than the lumbering dinosaurs.

So, no, these really ain’t the Dirty Thirties. We’ll be in and out more quickly, and the misery will be nowhere near as pervasive. Yes, entire sectors have been horribly wounded and will never be the same, but the ability of individuals to recast themselves quickly by virtue of cheap and available technology will enable us to escape the 1930s trap of “unemployable unemployed”. We have tools at our disposal that our Depression Era grandparents would never have dreamed possible.