Goldilocks, Afghanistan, and Other Stories
Afghanistan is descending all the way back into hell, somewhere between the Middle Ages and Jonestown, and we’re all quite rightly horrified. It’s heartwrenching to watch, and it will only get worse. Meanwhile, left wing and right wing journalists have finally agreed on one thing: Joe Biden blew it.
Well, Joe didn’t blow it– he is the first American leader in decades to tell it like it is and to have the courage to decide that if something’s not working, it’s time to stop doing it. That’s actually what leaders are supposed to do.
America has been in Afghanistan for two decades, at times at a monetary cost of one hundred billion dollars per year. There’s not much to show for it. And who can count the cost in human tragedy?
Worse, America invited all its best friends to the war at their own huge cost in lives and money. They will think twice about again stepping up for Uncle Sam.
America’s problems in Afghanistan are ones we face every day in our lives, professions, and businesses. Making huge, open-ended commitments before we understand their magnitude and repercussions usually ends in grief. Launching massive undertakings with no exit strategy rarely ends well.
How many professional firm mergers turn into disasters because they were initiated with nothing but a feel-good handshake, but with no thought about cultural differences, pecking order of key staffers, technology differences, or practice and procedure? Easy to get in, hard to get out.
Even in romance, promises and commitments made on the dance floor under the influence of soft lights and love songs are a little more problematic when the in-laws begin to interfere or financial overstretch sets in.
Things as simple as acquiring that gorgeous new high-end vehicle that you “needed” quickly turn into nightmares when you realize you’ve committed 30% of your after-tax budget to car payments for the next seven years.
We all make stupid, costly, overambitious commitments with no easy way out. The greater tragedy is when we refuse to take our lumps and move on.
Could America and her allies have “won” the war in Afghanistan? Of course, in exactly the same way they won WWII: total war. The Second World War ended only when the Allies incinerated Dresden and Hiroshima, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians and destroying most of the enemies’ industries and infrastructure. Whether or not that could or should have been done in Afghanistan is not my point, rather, having lacked the resolve to do what it takes to win means that they should never have started. Warfare is not for dabblers.
From the beginning, the evolving “plan” to win in Afghanistan has been nothing but an iteration of the sunk cost fallacy. That Joe Biden finally had the guts to call an end to the black hole of money and lives is no shame, rather it’s the mark of courage and wisdom.
Anybody got a better idea?