The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Winnipeg

Norm, are you serious? Winnipeg is in the centre of the continent, and sits 239m above mean sea level. If Winnipeg floods, we’re all in serious trouble.

Well, Winnipeg is not likely to face flooding from the oceans, but it is still going to pay a steep price for rising sea levels. And so will you, even in Denver, Johannesburg, and Canberra.

Let’s start with the fact that about 50% of humanity lives on coastal lowlands. That includes eight out of ten of the world’s largest cities. Mankind has lived there historically because that’s where most easily accessible fertile land was to be found, not to mention fishing and easy transportation.

Let’s also acknowledge that sea levels are rising. In the last hundred years they have risen just over a foot, but the pace is accelerating, likely to a meter or two in our lifetimes This isn’t hocus pocus, it’s just measurable fact, unless you believe Faux News or one of the other fantasy channels.
Think of any coastal city you know. Just visualize what downtown will look like if the mean sea level, on a calm day, is a meter higher. Then imagine a windy day. Then imagine a good nor’easter. Remember, most of those big downtown towers go multiple stories underground– that’s where the mechanicals are. And of course, all of municipal electricity, gas, sewage, water… and subways. Can you picture it?
How about our food supplies? If you follow science news at all, you will know that sea level rise is already impacting agriculture, even far inland, by infiltrating groundwater and aquifers, raising salinity levels to the point where crops die in the fields, and locals have to import water for themselves and their livestock.
That it is saline is exactly the major problem with sea water. As the ocean rises, the salt water which infiltrates the groundwater begins to work its black magic on infrastructure by leaching into concrete and corroding the reinforcing steel. Yes, you can design around this, but we didn’t, as a result of which billions of dollars worth of basements and bridges and retaining walls are now starting to show signs of structural decay. It ain’t going to get better.
None of this discusses the impact of hurricanes and storm surges which can wreak spectacular destruction hundreds of miles inland, nor of climate change driven fires and floods. Here we just focus on the single issue of sea level rising, but you can do the math.
Nor have we touched the probability that significant numbers of coastal dwellers will have to relocate. Remember the 50% figure? Let’s say that just one in twenty has to pack up and move. What’s 5% of 50% of 8,000,000,000? How many do you want in your neighbourhood?
By now it’s likely occurred to you that there will be big dollar costs for all this. Disruption isn’t free. It’s not even cheap. So, the big question is: Who will pay?
You already know the answer, don’t you? At the end of the day, it’s only you and me who actually pay for anything. Insurers may pay out claims, but guess what? Governments may dole out big dollars for disaster relief and restoration, but guess what? Big corporations may have to move factories and warehouses, but guess what?
Without getting too complex, you can quickly see how these climate impacts work their way through to your tax bill, your insurance bill, and your grocery bill. The higher the sea level and the wilder the weather, the more it’s going to cost you, even if you live near Portage and Main.
If you find this all just too depressing, you can always watch Faux News. They think its a hoax.